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June to September 2024 Seasonal Forecast: Above-normal rainfall and higher-than-normal temperatures are predicted over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa

21 May, 2024 

IGAD Press Release96 

21st May 2024, Juba, South Sudan: The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) issued the June to September 2024 seasonal forecast indicating an increased likelihood of above-normal rainfall over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). The areas expected to experience these above-normal conditions include Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, western and coastal Kenya, much of Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan. On the other hand, parts of northern Somalia, isolated areas over western Ethiopia, and north-western South Sudan are expected to experience drier-than-normal conditions. The climate patterns in the JJAS 2024 period closely resemble those of 1998 and 2010, both of which experienced wetter-than-normal conditions over much of the region.

An early to normal onset is expected in several parts of the region including central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan. However, a delayed onset is likely in Djibouti, parts of eastern and western Ethiopia, central and western Sudan, and southern South Sudan.

The temperature forecast shows a probability of warmer-than-normal conditions across the region, particularly over northern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.

Dr. GuleidArtan, ICPAC’s Director noted that “The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) stands as a region that is highly susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, which pose significant challenges to the resilience of our communities. The forecasted wetter-than-normal conditions for June to September 2024 echo the patterns of 1998 and 2010, highlighting the level of impact especially for South Sudan and Sudan, which may experience impacts of floods.”

“As we observe these recurring extreme climate events, it is important to acknowledge the pivotal role played by early warning systems which serve as key instruments of preparedness, guiding us through climate variability. Through our operations, ICPAC continues to provide actionable climate information that is relevant and key for Early Action,” he added.

In line with the World Meteorological Organization’s guidelines and recommendations, ICPAC has adopted an objective seasonal forecast method to generate climate forecasts for the Greater Horn of Africa. May 2024 initialized seasonal forecasts from 9 Global Producing Centers (GPCs) were utilized and processed to develop the June – September 2024 seasonal climate outlook. The seasonal forecasts and their hindcast data were analyzed to provide a probabilistic forecast indicating the likelihood of above-normal, normal, or below-normal rainfall.

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